Luck & All-Play
All-Play Standings
Every team plays every other team each week. A 10-team league produces nine All-Play results per week. This strips schedule luck and shows who was actually strong. Regular season only, 2018 on.
| AP Rank | Owner | Team | Record | PF | All-Play | AP % | Luck (W-AP) | Schedule |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JO | Adam's Revenge | 8-5 | 1531.8 | 72-45 | 61.5% | 0 | As expected |
| 2 | AR | Give 'er The Beans | 6-7 | 1474.8 | 65-52 | 55.6% | -1.2 | Tough schedule |
| 3 | IK | Thats My God | 7-6 | 1455.6 | 63-54 | 53.8% | 0 | As expected |
| 4 | GM | Toe Burrows Ice Box | 6-7 | 1454.4 | 61-56 | 52.1% | -0.8 | As expected |
| 5 | CR | Significant Figures | 7-6 | 1410 | 61-56 | 52.1% | +0.2 | As expected |
| 6 | AN | El Fusilado | 6-7 | 1386.7 | 59-58 | 50.4% | -0.6 | As expected |
| 7 | DM | Feel It In My Plums | 5-8 | 1372 | 57-60 | 48.7% | -1.3 | Tough schedule |
| 8 | JH | ORACLE AI | 8-5 | 1362.5 | 51-66 | 43.6% | +2.3 | Benefited from schedule |
| 9 | DN | Washington Redskins | 6-7 | 1307.6 | 50-67 | 42.7% | +0.4 | As expected |
| 10 | ZS | Tomato Toes | 6-7 | 1320.4 | 46-71 | 39.3% | +0.9 | As expected |
All-Time All-Play (2018β2026)
Aggregate All-Play record across every regular-season week since ESPN.
| AP Rank | Owner | Team | Record | PF | All-Play | AP % | Luck (W-AP) | Schedule |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CR | Significant Figures | 62-44 | 12353.2 | 572-382 | 60.0% | -1.6 | Tough schedule |
| 2 | GM | Toe Burrows Ice Box | 58-48 | 12196.9 | 550-402-2 | 57.8% | -3.2 | Hurt by schedule |
| 3 | AN | El Fusilado | 57-49 | 12234.4 | 541-413 | 56.7% | -3.1 | Hurt by schedule |
| 4 | JH | ORACLE AI | 51-42 | 10155.9 | 442-395 | 52.8% | +1.9 | Slightly lucky schedule |
| 5 | SHEN | Team GuiceBox | 7-6 | 1477 | 61-56 | 52.1% | +0.2 | As expected |
| 6 | JO | Adam's Revenge | 56-50 | 11838.9 | 484-469-1 | 50.8% | +2.2 | Benefited from schedule |
| 7 | DM | Feel It In My Plums | 50-56 | 11571.7 | 463-491 | 48.5% | -1.4 | Tough schedule |
| 8 | DN | Washington Redskins | 52-54 | 11517.7 | 446-508 | 46.8% | +2.4 | Benefited from schedule |
| 9 | IK | Thats My God | 47-59 | 11399.3 | 441-512-1 | 46.3% | -2.1 | Hurt by schedule |
| 10 | ZS | Tomato Toes | 50-56 | 10934.4 | 385-569 | 40.4% | +7.2 | Benefited from schedule |
| 11 | AR | Give 'er The Beans | 40-66 | 10919.5 | 383-571 | 40.1% | -2.6 | Hurt by schedule |
Luck Index
Close games (<10 pts) flip on a few points. Luck Index shows close-game record against points-for rank. High PF rank with a bad close record is unlucky; low PF rank with a great close record is lucky. Regular season only.
| Owner | Team | PF | PF Rank | Close <10 | Close % | Luck (PFβClose) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZS | Tomato Toes | 1320.4 | 9 | 4-0 | 100% | +8 | π Very Lucky |
| JH | ORACLE AI | 1362.5 | 8 | 2-0 | 100% | +6 | Small sample |
| DN | Washington Redskins | 1307.6 | 10 | 1-2 | 33% | +3 | π Lucky |
| DM | Feel It In My Plums | 1372 | 7 | 2-2 | 50% | +2 | π Lucky |
| AR | Give 'er The Beans | 1474.8 | 2 | 1-0 | 100% | -1 | Small sample |
| IK | Thats My God | 1455.6 | 3 | 3-2 | 60% | -1 | Neutral |
| CR | Significant Figures | 1410 | 5 | 1-2 | 33% | -1 | Neutral |
| GM | Toe Burrows Ice Box | 1454.4 | 4 | 1-2 | 33% | -4 | π Very Unlucky |
| AN | El Fusilado | 1386.7 | 6 | 0-4 | 0% | -4 | π Very Unlucky |
| JO | Adam's Revenge | 1531.8 | 1 | 1-2 | 33% | -8 | π Very Unlucky |
All-Time Luck Index (2018β2026)
Cumulative close-game record versus total PF rank since 2018.
| Owner | Team | PF | PF Rank | Close <10 | Close % | Luck (PFβClose) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JH | ORACLE AI | 10155.9 | 10 | 13-10 | 56% | +8 | π Very Lucky |
| IK | Thats My God | 11399.3 | 7 | 18-12 | 60% | +6 | π Very Lucky |
| DM | Feel It In My Plums | 11571.7 | 5 | 15-13 | 54% | +2 | π Lucky |
| ZS | Tomato Toes | 10934.4 | 8 | 17-16 | 52% | +2 | π Lucky |
| SHEN | Team GuiceBox | 1477 | 11 | 2-3 | 40% | +2 | π Lucky |
| JO | Adam's Revenge | 11838.9 | 4 | 15-13 | 54% | 0 | Neutral |
| DN | Washington Redskins | 11517.7 | 6 | 12-16 | 43% | -2 | π Unlucky |
| AR | Give 'er The Beans | 10919.5 | 9 | 8-13 | 38% | -2 | π Unlucky |
| CR | Significant Figures | 12353.2 | 1 | 14-13 | 52% | -4 | π Very Unlucky |
| GM | Toe Burrows Ice Box | 12196.9 | 3 | 13-13 | 50% | -4 | π Very Unlucky |
| AN | El Fusilado | 12234.4 | 2 | 9-14 | 39% | -8 | π Very Unlucky |
How these numbers work
All-Play: Each week every team plays every other team. In a 10-team league that is 9 All-Play games per team per week. We tally All-Play W-L across the regular season. Comparing actual wins to All-Play wins exposes schedule luck: a team with 8 actual wins but 65 All-Play wins faced an easy slate; a team with 5 actual wins but 80 All-Play wins got screwed.
Luck Index: Close games are those decided by <10 points. Close win % versus points-for rank defines luck. Example: a team ranked 9th in PF but 1st in close win % is lucky; a team ranked 1st in PF but 9th in close win % is unlucky. Luck diff = PF rank β close rank. Positive means lucky, negative means unlucky. Teams with fewer than three close games show Small sample.
Both tables cover regular-season weeks only and start in 2018 when the league joined ESPN. Weekly scores before 2018 are not available.
Regenerate with make luck.